LaDainian Tomlinson was a fantasy difference-maker last season, rushing for 1,815 yards and an NFL-record 31 touchdowns. But should he be this year's No. 1 selection? Courier sports writers Sean Hylton and Kelly Beaton clash on the subject:

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There goes Beaton, jumping on the fastest bandwagon out of town, all the while neglecting to read the warnings signs posted by the roadside.

I know I'm in the minority this week - virtually every fantasy publication known to man has LaDainian Tomlinson listed as the No. 1 pick, a sure-fire selection that guaranteed to take your fantasy squad to the playoffs singlehandedly.

Now, I'm not here to say Tomlinson will be a bust. He remains pretty safe pick if you're sitting there at No. 1, haven't done your research and are a wet-behind-the-ears reporter at the Courier.

But if you're ready to let the bandwagon fly by and take in some cautionary tales, I'll assure you this much - I don't know who will be the top fantasy scorer this season, but I know it won't be LT. Let me explain.

It seems like every year fantasy geeks are sold a story about a knight in a shining helmet and guess what? The preseason No. 1 is NEVER the postseason No. 1. Repeat after me: Never.

When Beaton was still slapping on Clearasil in '99, I was already a seasoned fantasy nerd. It was that preseason I was sucked into the Terrell Davis hype after he had rushed for 2,008 yards and 23 touchdowns in '98. I drew our league's No. 1 pick out of a hat, gleefully took T.D. only to see a torn ACL and MCL ruin his season (211 yards, 0 TDs) and career.

Now, again, I'm not predicting a career-ending injury for LT - just that Davis' monstrous 392-carry season in '98 (or fate) might have played a role in his demise.

Fantasy history is littered with stars who suffered noticeable drops in production the next year, either due to injury, age or opponents' game-planning. In recent history, remember Peyton Manning's huge season (4,557 yards, 49 TDs) in '04? In '05 he threw for 800 fewer yards and just 28 scores.

Steve Smith's breakout year (103 receptions, 1,563 yards, 13 TDs) in '05? In '06 he slipped to 83 catches, 1166 yards and 9 TDs.

Tony Gonzalez's tight end bonanza (103 receptions, 1,258 yards, 7 TDs) in '04? He had just 78 catches, 905 yards and 2 TDs a year later.

Shawn Alexander's record-setting 28 TDs in 2005? A cracked foot limited him to seven in '07.

Considering LT's previous struggles with injuries (groin in '04, ribs in '05), his advancing age (28), workload the last five seasons (2,050 carries), backup Michael Turner and the Bolts' desire to keep LT fresh, the warning signs are a flashin'.

In point-per-reception leagues, 24-year-old Steven Jackson is a better bet, while the 27-year-old Larry Johnson was surprisingly better in '06 than '05 and has posted better second halves than LT the last two seasons.