Thinking about Fran Tarkenton right now is like applying sunscreen in a blizzard. The timing felt odd.

After all, we've just finished college basketball. Major League Baseball has just begun. OK, the NFL Draft is a few weeks away, but Tarkenton will not be on that clock. Not many 69-year-old former quarterbacks attract attention from general managers. Mel Kiper will go bald before that happens.

So why drift back to an old Minnesota Viking who hasn't thrown a professional pass in more than 30 years?

The answer is perfectly clear, when you think about. It's Jay Cutler.

Not long ago, the Denver Broncos traded Cutler to the Chicago Bears in a deal that also involved Iowa native Kyle Orton.

It didn't take long for the analysts to hit mid-season stride.

Cutler is the star quarterback the Bears have lacked for decades, some said. They're Super Bowl favorites now.

No, they're not, said the dissenters. They painted Cutler as a whiny, immature brat who forced a trade out of Denver in what amounted to a sixth-grade temper tantrum.

This is part of the NFL in the 21st century. Media giants like FOX and ESPN pay former players a substantial amount of money to tell us what's going to happen months before the season kicks off. In fact, they're only guessing, throwing darts at a 100-yard board.

So, when I heard the Trent Dilfers of the world talk about what Cutler will mean to the Bears in 2009, I turned and veered in a different direction - to 1972, the Vikings and Tarkenton. The parallels to Chicago and Cutler aren't perfect, but they exist.

Nearly 40 years ago, the Vikings were playoff regulars. But they lost Super Bowl IV to Kansas City, and then bowed out in the first round over the next two seasons.

Even a high school student in Minnesota like me seemed capable of figuring out the problem - quarterback.

Bud Grant used three of them in 1971 - Gary Cuozzo, Norm Snead and Bob Lee. That three-headed monster completed 47 percent of its passes and had an overall quarterback rating of 51.6. Roger Staubach could complete 47 percent in his sleep.

So, after losing to Dallas in the 1971 playoffs, the Vikes took action. Tarkenton returned to Minnesota, his first NFL team. Snead, a good wide receiver named Bob Grim and a reserve back named Vince Clements headed for the New York Giants.

We all knew what would happen. With Tarkenton. the Purple People Eaters like Carl Eller and Alan Page on defense, what could go wrong? We were headed for the Super Bowl.

Instead, the Vikings went nowhere. They finished 7-7 in 1972. Green Bay, with Scott Hunter at quarterback, won the NFC Central Division.

It was a strange, strange year. Tarkenton hit 56.9 percent of his passes. His quarterback rating stood at a respectable 80.2, infinitely better than the firm of Cuozzo, Snead and Lee. The overall offensive numbers improved.

What no one anticipated before the 1972 season began was the sudden decline of the defense. The Vikings allowed 139 points in 1971, the best in the NFL. A year later, they gave up 252, good for only 11th out of 26 teams.

Meanwhile, Norm Snead won eight of his 13 starts with the Giants in 1972. And Gary Cuozzo's St. Louis Cardinals beat Tarkenton's Vikings when Fred Cox missed a chip shot field goal late in the game. Go figure.

A year later, though, Minnesota returned to the Super Bowl. The defense, still past its prime, got better. Tarkenton's numbers climbed. But the story was the arrival of a versatile back named Chuck Foreman, who gave the offense a threat on the ground and in the air.

Spin forward to 2009. The Bears acquired a potentially great quarterback in Cutler. Maybe the pieces are in place for a Super Bowl run. Or perhaps a key injury shatters the dream. Or another weakness, one hidden from view in April, surfaces in October.

Will the Bears hold the Lombardi Trophy? Or will they hold on, waiting for the next draft and the next big deal?

It might be a good time to reach for the sunscreen.

Contact Jim Sullivan at (319) 291-1434 or jim.sullivan@wcfcourier.com