JOSH FRIEDMAN and CLAUDIA ELLER, Los Angeles Times | Posted: Thursday, December 21, 2006 12:00 am
HOLLYWOOD -- Two weeks before Hollywood rolls the credits on 2006, its box-office resurgence will be formally cemented this week thanks largely to one of the industry's most venerable stars -- the sequel.
Led by such blockbusters as "Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest," "X-Men: The Last Stand" and "Ice Age: The Meltdown," domestic receipts are poised to overtake the $8.9-billion domestic gross for all of 2005.
Driving the comeback were sequels that reaped $2 billion, more than 40 percent above what they grossed a year earlier, and accounted for six of the year's 12 biggest movies.
"While nothing is a slam-dunk in this business," said Walt Disney Studios Chairman Dick Cook, "at least going in there's a comfort level knowing that audiences have embraced these characters and the worlds that have been created."
In the coming months, Hollywood will bring out even bigger guns in what is shaping up as an arms race of sequels.
Coming in May will be the third installments of the "Spider-Man," "Shrek" and "Pirates" movies, with another likely hit, "Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix," following in July. Those films are among 19 sequels scheduled for 2007, which also include "Fantastic Four 2: Rise of the Silver Surfer," "Ocean's Thirteen," "Evan Almighty" and "National Treasure 2."
"Next year, there's a greater concentration of known, commercially viable movies than we've ever seen before," said John Fithian, president of the National Association of Theatre Owners trade group. "That should be significant closure to the debate on the life expectancy of the cinema business."
Although 2006 won't be a record, the sequel-driven recovery is all but erasing the angst of last year, when Hollywood executives lost sleep over the steepest attendance drop in 20 years and the third down year in a row at the box office.
Many executives argued it was because of bad movies. But some pundits speculated that a more permanent change was taking place. They maintained that state-of-the-art home theater systems, the Internet, videogames and other diversions were siphoning people from multiplex crowds, pricey concessions and annoyances such as ringing cellphones.
Ironically, one of the key reasons cited was a series of uninspiring sequels such as "The Legend of Zorro," "Transporter 2" and "XXX: State of the Union" that failed to lure large crowds. Critics speculated that moviegoers were tiring of seeing recycled characters and ideas.
"When you make a good sequel, people go," said Sony Pictures movie chief Amy Pascal, who oversees the "Spider-Man" series. "When you make a sequel that's not good, it shows."
This year, audiences found Hollywood's choice of sequels far more appealing. The second installment of the "Pirates" series set an all-time opening weekend record this summer.
It doesn't hurt that Johnny Depp has emerged as one of the world's biggest box-office draws and has embraced his popular Capt. Jack Sparrow character to where he is reviving him for yet another "Pirates" sequel.
Producer Jerry Bruckheimer, Hollywood's top maker of big-ticket franchises, recalled that Depp was so into being Sparrow that he didn't want to leave the set at a former airplane hangar in Palmdale on the last day of shooting there.
"He didn't jump in his SUV and split like most big stars," Bruckheimer said. "He loves the character."
Not every successful sequel has to have the size and budget of a "Pirates."
Some of the biggest returns on investment this year came from lower budget films like "Jackass: Number Two" and "Saw III." Next year's lineup includes "The Hills Have Eyes II," "Resident Evil 3," "Hostel 2" and "Saw IV."
But the cost of betting on new installments of established hits often reaches blockbuster proportions. Production and marketing outlays on a single title can total more than $400 million. Studios will spend more than $1 billion alone next year to make and market "Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End," "Spider-Man 3" and "Shrek 3."
"There's always an upward cost pressure for any sequel," said Alan Horn, president of Warner Bros., home to the "Harry Potter" series. "But on the benefit side, there's an immediate audience awareness for sequels which helps us break through the competitive clutter on opening weekend."
Costs have soared so much that even some big box-office performers aren't bottom line hits for studios.
This summer's "Mission: Impossible III" grossed nearly $400 million worldwide, earning star Tom Cruise some $80 million. But the film's backer, Paramount Pictures, will only break even given the movie's high production and marketing costs.
One reason budgets rise so much is that producers crank up the special effects, under pressure to create a spectacle that outdoes the earlier films.
"We always try to top ourselves and there's a cost attached to that," said Laura Ziskin, producer of the special effects-laden "Spider-Man" films.
Studios also usually end up paying higher salaries to keep their original stars on board. Because filmmakers are eager for them to revive their roles, stars enjoy more leverage in negotiating their paychecks. At 17, "Harry Potter" star Daniel Radcliffe is reportedly England's wealthiest teenager, with his paycheck steadily rising with each film to where it is now a reported $14 million.
Even veteran producers behind some of the most lucrative movie series feel the heat when the ballooning costs are combined with ever-rising expectations.
"There's a lot of pressure to succeed," Bruckheimer said. "You spend a lot of money on these sequels and you have to keep raising the bar."
One way to try to freshen a franchise to make it more appealing is to develop more emotional, complex and even darker sides to familiar characters. Critics praised "Batman Begins" and the latest James Bond film, "Casino Royale," for reinventing their characters by getting them away from the more cartoonish figures they had become.
In "Spider-Man 3," the superhero's alter ego, Peter Parker, confronts his darker, vengeful side when his red suit suddenly turns jet black and amps up his powers. In "Harry Potter," the hero will enjoy his first on-screen kiss while continuing his evolution from outsider into a leader.
Tom Rothman, co-chairman of 20th Century Fox, said his studio is keeping the "Fantastic Four" series of Marvel adaptations fresh by introducing the Silver Surfer -- the intergalactic, introspective superhero he calls "the holy grail of comic book characters."
Though sequels enjoy instant audience recognition, the movies must live up to their hype or risk becoming costly failures. Which is why, despite being familiar territory to audiences, they often still need big marketing budgets.
"I don't think you can take anything for granted," said Jeff Blake, Sony Pictures head of worldwide marketing and distribution. "You have to convince moviegoers that this installment is worth getting in line to see."