NASHUA -- Iowa State University's new grain marketing specialist says a bountiful harvest is anything but a sure thing, which will continue to spur volatile commodity markets.

The proof was perched and lying behind Chad Hart on Thursday in the Northeast Iowa Reseach Farm's shop/lecture hall near Nashua. Several samples of corn and soybeans were dug from the farm's fields the previous day, and corn ears and soybean pods weren't exactly bursting with grain.

Hart, a guest speaker for the first time at the farm's annual Fall Field Day, warned area farmers the days of market predictability are finished. If producers haven't already purchased revenue insurance and other forms of income protection, they should do so even if it costs a little more.

Demand for biofuels, livestock feed and exports are causing markets to fluctuate wildly. Hart said prices that once only moved a few cents for months at a time now can hit the 30-cent maximum increase or drop on the Chicago Board of Trade for several days in a row.

"We just don't have the stores of corn (and soybeans) to maintain the price anymore. Investors are jumping in and out as a hedge (against other investments), it definitely impacts volatility," Hart said.

According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, the country will have 1.1 billion bushels of corn on hand after the 2008/09 marketing year, down from nearly 1.6 billion bushels. Soybean stock is projected to drop to 135 million bushels in 2008/09, down from 574 million in 2006/07.

Hart, who replaced Bob Wisner on Aug. 1 as the state's leading grain economist, said he's still heavily relying on his predecessor and his 41 years of experience and USDA statistics to help provide advice to the state's farmers.

In August, the government predicted a rosy outlook for Iowa corn and soybeans despite flooding and a poor start to the growing season. Corn was projected to average 171 bushels per acre and soybeans 47.

Hart isn't so sure. A new report will be released this week. Because Iowa is the No.1 corn and soybean producer, lower yields could cause more market fluctuations. Selling at the right time could mean big bucks, but a wrong move could be costly.

"Know what your break-even is and look for pricing opportunities. But don't be caught without downside protection, like options," Hart said.

Judging by corn and soybean plants on display, Waverly farmer Mark Mueller also thinks the government is overly optimistic. He's also president of the Northeast Iowa Agricultural Experimental Association, which owns the research farm.

"We're going to have problems this year I think," he said.

The latest USDA price projections for the 2008/09 marketing year has corn between $4.90 to $5.90 per bushel and soybeans at $11.50. Hart said those prices are profitable now, but inputs like fertilizer, land, fuel and machinery have nearly caught up.

Marc Hermann, a Manchester farmer and member of the association, said he often relied on Wisner for marketing tips. With input costs shooting up and grain prices -- though still profitable -- acting like a yo-yo, Hermann said he's glad ISU found someone to take Wisner's place. Wisner retired last December.

After listening to Hart for the first time, Hermann didn't leave disappointed.

"I would agree with him," he said, referring to the income protection warnings. "Everybody will have to do a better job of marketing and watching input costs. Next year it looks like the good times are over."

Contact Matthew Wilde

at (319) 291-1579

or matt.wilde@wcfcourier.com.