DES MOINES - Iowa's aging population could strain the state's ability to fund education and health care over the next two decades, according to a study released Monday.

The study from the Iowa Fiscal Partnership, a non-partisan budget think tank, found that the state may struggle to meet its health care obligations to the growing proportion of older Iowans while also maintaining funding for public education.

"Something's going to have to give," said Peter Fisher, research director at the Iowa Policy Project and co-author of the report, during a telephone news conference.

The study reports that 22 percent of the state population will be over age 64 by 2030, which will saddle the state with a greater demand for government programs that help older and disabled citizens with health costs.

But the report also found that the cost to put a child through public education will rise by an average of 5.1 percent per year during that time period.

State revenue likely won't keep pace with the rising costs of health care and education, which currently make up the majority of the state budget, according to the report.

State revenue as a share of the Iowa's economy has dipped over the last 15 years, and the report blames that trend on what it calls aggressive tax cuts beginning in the 1990s.

"On the revenue side, we have some state policies that are helping to dig us into a hole in the next two decades," Fisher said.

He said state income tax preferences for the elderly mean that the fastest-growing segment of the population is shouldering a lighter tax burden.

Fisher said state policymakers should weigh the long-term consequences of fiscal policies intended to deal with the currently staggering economy.

"The bottom line message here is however bleak things look now, the long-run prognosis isn't particularly cheery, and we need to take that into account when we think about what policies to adopt in the short run," Fisher said.

House Minority Leader Kraig Paulsen, R-Hiawatha, said he opposes getting rid of the income tax preferences for seniors.

"We understood that Iowa seniors were going to pay fewer taxes, and we think that's right," Paulsen said.

Senate Minority Leader Paul McKinley, R-Chariton, said encouraging job growth in the state would widen the state's tax base and counter the impact of an increasing number of retirees by attracting and keeping young professionals in the state.

"I think it's a blessing that people in Iowa live and enjoy their old age," McKinley said. "The issue is we have to have economic policies that create new job opportunities for the young people so they don't all move out of state."

Rep. Deborah Berry, D-Waterloo, said the Legislature must direct funding toward some immediate needs, such as disaster recovery, that take precedence over long-term considerations.

"The needs are immediate, and those needs exist now," Berry said. "I think our focus has to be on the immediate."

But she said lawmakers also must find a way to take care of senior citizens who need help with health care costs.

Berry said she would consider opening up the state's Senior Living Trust Fund, which is designed to pay for assisted-living institutions or help seniors stay in their homes, to a wider variety of uses, including to help pay for health care.

Contact Fred Love at (515) 422-9061

or fred.love@lee.net.