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WATERLOO -- States crave Iowa's first-in-the-nation caucus status for the economic and political windfall that follows candidates into the Midwest every few years. Measuring the impact of the caucus season is an inexact science, however.

State political parties across the country this year attempted to leap-frog caucuses and primaries to the earliest possible dates. To stay ahead, Iowa's Democratic and Republican parties moved their caucuses to Jan. 3.

Iowa took the lead 35 years ago, and many Iowans accept the tradition as a right even though it came to fruition by chance.

The co-chair of the Democratic Party in 1972 was a relatively unknown politician named George McGovern. He helped engineer the state's January caucus for the Iowa Democratic Party and campaigned heavily in the state for the presidential nomination. Though he finished second in Iowa, the momentum he gained propelled McGovern to the Democratic nomination that year.

Four years later, the Iowa Republican Party moved its caucuses to January, as well.

The Iowa caucuses rarely pick the eventual national winners. But since Jimmy Carter's second-place finish in Iowa and eventual victory as president in 1976, the caucuses have become a platform for lesser-known candidates to garner attention. To a degree, the amount depends largely on the nature of the election.

In 1992, Sen. Tom Harkin, D-Iowa, decided to seek his party's presidential nomination. Other candidates from Harkin's party conceded Iowa to Harkin and campaigned little in the Hawkeye State prior to the caucuses. On the Republican side, President George H. W. Bush was virtually unopposed. As a result, the national media largely ignored the process.

This year's caucuses fall at the opposite end of the spectrum. President George W. Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney can't or won't seek the Republican presidential nomination, leaving the field wide open on their side of the political aisle. The last time neither the incumbent president nor vice president ran for their party's nomination was in 1952. That creates a perfect storm with multiple candidates from both parties campaigning heavily in Iowa.

Economic boon

Its first-in-the-nation status transforms Iowa into a political battleground. Candidates flood the state with commercials, appearances, mass mailings, phone calls and e-mail messages. All of those campaign tools carry price tags, meaning candidates also flood the Iowa economy with outside money.

The Iowa Department of Economic Development has trouble isolating how much money feeds into the economy from candidates in caucus years. In 2004, the agency estimated caucuses brought $50 to $60 million into the state, according to public information officer Shawn Rolland. This year, the IDED expects the campaigning to provide "tens of millions of more dollars of economic impact."

Advertising accounts for the largest chunk of that revenue. Media managers say they experience large gains in revenue during a political season. Laws prevent media outlets from gouging politicians, but that doesn't keep campaigns from throwing money around.

"They aren't really looking, so to speak, to go into a station and say, 'I'm going to run six to eight spots a day for my sale,'" said Tim Mathews, general manager of KXEL Broadcasting in Waterloo. "They are more likely to say, 'I have $1,000 to spend. How many spots can I buy?'"

Candidates, their staff members and national media types also have to eat, drink and sleep, which pours more money into local economies. Campaign headquarters pay rent and utilities, and many have full-time staffers who set up temporary homes in Iowa during the election season.

But local effects are also difficult to decipher. Through Sept. 30 Iowans had contributed slightly more than $834,000 to presidential hopefuls. Of that amount, just $26,042 came from ZIP codes that cover Waterloo and Cedar Falls. Those figures, provided by the Federal Election Commission, pale in comparison to the $60 million or more that candidates will likely spend in the state this year.

The caucuses also have a secondary effect on the state's economy, focsuing candidates' attention on issues vital to Iowans.

Would ethanol be such an important issue if not for Iowa's first-in-the-nation status?

"Probably not," said Donna Hoffman, a political science professor at the University of Northern Iowa.

"The same goes for the Medicare reimbursement issue," she said.

Because candidates spend so much time in the state, residents are able to engage in retail politics, meeting candidates face-to-face. Iowa shares the opportunity with New Hampshire, which holds the first-in-the-nation primary.

"I just walked across the street to see Chris Dodd. Where else in the country could you do that?" Hoffman said.

Two sides

When candidates flash their millions to media outlets, local businesses may have trouble securing regular commercial spots.

Roth Jewelers is one of many Cedar Valley businesses advertising on television, radio and in print. General Manager Kevin Schreiber said the jeweler "picks its spots" with media outlets during its budget scheduling process each year.

"In a political year, if a politician wants to come in and buy up a block of ads and wants to pay more, (the media outlet) is going to negotiate with us and probably kick us out of the spot," Schreiber said.

Local advertisers might find they can't get their information out in certain weeks or have to pay a little more, said Jim Coloff, general manager of radio stations 1650 AM and Mix 96 FM in Waterloo.

"We have inventory issues," Coloff said. "It may work against some of the local advertisers trying to get time as caucuses and candidates take up slots."

The effect is greater in smaller communities, said Coloff, where there are fewer media outlets available.

Listeners and viewers also have to deal with the onslaught of political advertising. Automated telephone calls and negative ads are among the issues that draw the most ire from Iowans, Hoffman said.

"And there might be times when a candidate is at a restaurant you want to go to, but you can't get in because it's filled with people who are there to see the candidate," she added.

Those inconveniences pale in comparison to the benefits for the state, Hoffman said.

Beyond that, Iowa's elite status raises questions on a national level about fairness. Issues important in the Hawkeye State move to the forefront of political discussions at the cost of topics that affect a larger percentage of the U.S. population.

Also, while candidates are not chosen exclusively by residents in Iowa and New Hampshire, the field often narrows quickly as hopefuls drop out because they did not receive early support. That may keep candidates from testing the waters in other states where they might have otherwise enjoyed success.

Hoffman also notes a side-effect of having other states vie for early caucus and primary dates. The compression of events in a smaller time frame gives candidates less time to parlay success in Iowa to other states, or come back from a poor showing. That may prevent a candidate from emulating the success McGovern and Carter enjoyed.

Different system

National political parties have tried with little success to discourage state parties from changing the dates of their primaries and caucuses. But other systems have been proposed to create a level playing field.

A national primary is one idea, Hoffman said. Under the concept, everyone in the U.S. would vote on the same day, just as they do for the presidential election.

But such a system would direct candidates' attention to major cities, where advertisements and appearances would reach the greatest number of voters. Smaller states such as Iowa would likely watch their issues fall off the radar screen.

A proposed compromise would create a system with three or four rounds of primaries and caucuses, Hoffman said. Smaller states would go first, followed by bigger states' primaries a few weeks later. The largest states would go last.

Advocates contend the system would force presidential hopefuls to budget their time.

Hoffman, however, doesn't believe any of the alternatives will ever become a reality, meaning Iowans will continue to lead.

"Given the fact that there is no broad agreement on what the system should look like, we benefit from the status quo essentially."

Contact Drew Andersen at (319) 291-1418 or drew.andersen@wcfcourier.com.