DES MOINES - Iowa's aging population could strain the state's ability to fund education and health care over the next two decades, according to a study released Monday.

The study from the Iowa Fiscal Partnership, a nonpartisan budget think tank, found that the state may struggle to meet its health care obligations to the growing proportion of older Iowans while also maintaining funding for public education.

"Something's going to have to give," said Peter Fisher, research director at the Iowa Policy Project, during a telephone news conference.

The study reports that 22 percent of the state population will be over age 64 by 2030, which will saddle the state with a greater demand for government programs that help older and disabled citizens with health costs.

But the report also found that the cost to put a child through public education will rise by an average of 5.1 percent per year during that time period.

State revenue likely won't keep pace with the rising costs of health care and education, which currently make up the majority of the state budget, according to the report.

State revenues as a share of the Iowa's economy have dipped over the last 15 years, and the report blames that trend on aggressive tax cuts beginning in the 1990s.

"On the revenue side, we have some state policies that are helping to dig us into a hole in the next two decades," Fisher said.

He said state income tax preferences for the elderly mean that the fastest growing segment of the population is shouldering a lighter tax burden.

Fisher said state policymakers should weigh the long-term consequences of fiscal policies intended to deal with the currently staggering economy.

"The bottom line message here is however bleak things look now, the long-run prognosis isn't particularly cheery, and we need to take that into account when we think about what policies to adopt in the short run," Fisher said.

Contact Fred Love at (515) 243-0138 or fred.love@lee.net.