Repeat this chant, the next time you get a wave of anxiety over mortgages, your job, your sky-high cell phone bill, and the melting ice caps.
"It's not the Great Depression. It's not the Great Depression. It's not the Great Depression."
There. Don't you feel better?
Actually, things aren't as gloomy as you might suspect. Turn off the panic-attack-prone news readers on the tube and gather a little perspective.
"It's not the Great Depression. It's not the Great Depression. It's not the Great Depression."
The current wailing and teeth gnashing is focused on a national unemployment rate of more than 7 percent.
Yes, it's been lower. Much lower. But, a 4 percent jobless rate is considered, for practical purposes, "full employment."
Iowa's jobless rate is a bit over that now.
All of which is not to minimize the pain that those who have been thrown out of work through no fault of their own are enduring.
But things have been worse. And, I'm not talking about the 1930s. No need to go back that far to give our current funk a little context.
In the 1981-'82 recession, before the Reagan tax cuts kicked in, this country had an unemployment rate of 11 percent. The prime rate was around 20 percent. The Consumer Price Index, which is a prime measurement of inflation, was 13 percent. The price of fuel was hitting all-time record highs.
Today, inflation is almost nonexistent. According to a recent report issued by the U.S. Department of Labor, the Consumer Price Index in the year ending Jan. 31 was 0 percent - the lowest 12-month number since 1955.
Energy prices dropped 40.4 percent in the year ending Jan. 31, even with a 6 percent increase in costs at the gas pump in January.
Lending rates have dipped below 5 percent.
Prices for fruits and vegetables fell by 1.3 percent. Home fuel oil costs dropped 2.7 percent. Public transportation costs fell by 1.8 percent. Even hotel rates and other "lodging away from home" prices, slipped by 1.1 percent.
And, what of the Dow Jones Industrial Average?
The sky-is-falling tribunes of the airwaves drone on breathlessly about the Dow, which, admittedly, has plummeted from its all-time high of 14,000 in October 2007 to its current level around 7,300. What they tend not to mention is that the Dow was typically below the 1,000-share level until a bull market carried it to unseen thresholds between 1983 and 2000, when it peaked at 11,000.
Markets have ups and downs and, regardless of government meddling, they'll have their way through their own natural courses.
Our friends on the air will tell you that we're in the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression.
Now, you have an answer for them. They won't listen, but it helps to keep it in mind, the next time you turn on the TV.
"It's not the Great Depression. It's not the Great Depression. It's not the Great Depression."
Posted in Staff on Sunday, March 1, 2009 12:00 am Updated: 6:16 pm.
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