Charlotte Eby

The one thing that's a sure bet is that nothing's a sure bet on caucus night.

The Republican campaign is in flux, and it's hard to predict who will pull out a win on Jan. 3.

Although Mike Huckabee, the former Arkansas governor, has enjoyed a meteoric rise in Iowa, he could be in for a tough finale.

His shoestring campaign might have difficulty capitalizing on his popularity in the Iowa caucuses, where organization and getting supporters to the caucus matters as much as message.

Huckabee, who has led in recent polls, has been attacked from all sides on questions about his foreign policy experience and his record as governor.

Rival Mitt Romney has been relentless in his criticisms of Huckabee's record on crime, pointing to commutations Huckabee granted to convicted criminals in Arkansas.

Huckabee took on the question of commutations head-on during an Iowa appearance. He said of 8,700 commutation requests he received during his time as governor, he denied 90 percent.

But he highlighted a few that he was proud of granting. He talked of a 25-year-old who wanted to attend culinary school but had the black mark of joy-riding in a stolen car as an 18-year-old in his record.

Huckabee said it was the right thing to do to grant him a clemency and give him a second chance.

He also granted commutations to single moms who couldn't get a job in a nursing home years later after writing a "hot" check.

Huckabee bashed Romney's decision not to grant clemency to a man who wanted to be a police officer but had shot someone with a BB gun when he was 13 years old, not even breaking the skin.

Huckabee said the best political decision is to deny every application.

"I think we ought to make decisions on what's best for the future of a young man, not what's best for the future of somebody who wants to run for a future office," Huckabee said.

Polls show Romney, who once held a lead in Iowa, still coming in a close second place. Romney packed a hotel ballroom with nearly 1,500 revelers for his Christmas party Wednesday night in West Des Moines.

Romney has one thing Huckabee lacks - a strong campaign organization that knows how to turn out supporters. They flexed that muscle in August at the GOP straw poll in Ames, busing in supporters from around the state who handed Romney a win.

But don't call it a two-person race just yet.

Fred Thompson has been trying to wrangle up interest in his campaign by spending time in Iowa, although to less-than-stellar reviews.

It seems as if the label as a lazy, unenthusiastic campaigner is starting to stick.

Thompson has still managed to land the endorsement of U.S. Rep. Steve King, the king of right-wing true believers in Iowa.

John McCain, riding a new wave of momentum after an impressive string of newspaper endorsements, is trying to breathe new life into his sagging campaign.

But he's doing that in New Hampshire, not Iowa, where he hasn't shown his face much in recent months.

McCain isn't the only candidate running a drive-by campaign in Iowa.

Public schedules for Rudy Giuliani don't show him making a stop in Iowa on his latest 10-day campaign stretch. His scattershot approach has him stopping in Missouri, hardly an influential primary state, but not crossing the border to meet voters in Iowa.

The X-factor this year could be Ron Paul if he can encourage his backers to log off their computers long enough to head to the caucuses.

Even without a strong campaign structure in Iowa, Paul was able to surprise many by snagging fifth place at the GOP straw poll in Ames.

And everybody likes a surprise on caucus night.

Charlotte Eby is Statehouse bureau chief for Lee Enterprises. Contact her at (515) 243-0138 or chareby@aol.com.