Howard Dean did it. So did Ed Muskie. Michael Dukakis too, and just a few days ago, Hillary. What did they do?

They all looked terribly un-presidential on camera. The President of the United States needs to project dignity, gravitas, a seriousness of purpose that help his or her fellow citizens believe they're at least competent, if not always inspiring.

So when Howard Dean screamed like a goosed cheerleader, Sen. Muskie went wet over a newspaper story questioning his wife's sobriety and propriety, and Gov. Dukakis peeped his helmeted head out of a tank looking like a whack-em doll, political fortunes were spent.

Hillary, however, gained by getting publicly verklempft because she seemed real at last. Normally a policy wonk, in New Hampshire she seemed genuinely moved, more human than politician. A future president needs to look authentically human occasionally, especially when they usually seem robotic. Unpresidential evidently trumps inhuman.

Still, in our age of instant imagery, a general rule remains: Look like a president, act like a president, and someday you might become a president. However, not necessarily a good president.

Warren G. Harding remains the model president-image. He looked perfect for the part: Tall, handsome to a fault, a commanding physical presence.

Yet he made a terrible president. He did virtually nothing for over two and a half years, then died of a heart attack. Even he believed he deserved oblivion, saying "I am not fit for this office and never should have been there."

Which brings me to our current crop of candidates. Some in fact do look and act more presidential than others. In order of looking the part, from most to least: McCain with his long and hard experience showing in every line and look. Then Romney, with a hint of gray and a manly profile that's ridiculously photogenic.

Edwards next, who manages to look permanently but genuinely concerned. Then Giuliani, whose impish smile comes too readily, but who seems at least potentially wise. Getting down there, Huckabee, who looks for all the world like Richard Nixon's brother, including the shifty eyes. If he weren't an ordained Bible-beater, he probably wouldn't have made a ripple.

Last and least: Hillary and Barack. We've never had a woman or a black president, so both challenge our national image of a tall, white male president. Neither looks immediately presidential, and more power to them.

Now I'm jumping out on a limb and predicting the candidates and the November outcome. Save this column, and I'll send two-bits -- $.25 -- to anyone who mails it to me at the Courier if I'm wrong on either. (Only one quarter per family, please.)

The GOP will collectively decide that they have confidence in McCain's presidential appearance and nominate him, despite his advanced age and moderate stance on a number of issues. The Straight Talker will rule.

The Democrats will damn the imagery baggage and run full speed with Obama. Hillary will go down fighting, but she will definitely go down. She might manage to seem presidential, (Bill's narcissism won't help) but she's too much of a gift to the GOP.

So come next November, we will be choosing between a white male candidate who looks presidential, and the young black candidate who challenges that look and breaks the presidential image-mold.

And so we will elect Obama.

President Barack Obama. Why? Three reasons:

1. George W. Bush the man. He did look presidential at times, though he never did speak or think like a real president. And look at what a complete mess he's made. Anybody and anything associated with him will get short shrift from voters. McCain, strike one.

2. George W. Bush and Iraq. Unless we're making spectacular progress there, we're going to want to quit and spend our foreign policy billions where they might actually do some good. Guess which candidate supports Bush's Iraq policies most. McCain strike two.

3. George W. Bush and issues: The economy, health care, immigration, and Social Security. All problematic and getting worse. All crying for solutions that the old guard hasn't found. McCain strike three, and he's out.

And that's worth two-bits.