DES MOINES - The Cedar Valley followed the statewide trend of bucking - if slightly - the national jobless trend, as the region's unemployment rate ratcheted down by one-tenth of a point in November, to 3.6 percent, according to Iowa Workforce Development.

Black Hawk County's unemployment rate of 3.8 percent in November nudged downward from 3.9 percent a month earlier.

Iowa's seasonally adjusted unemployment rate showed a similarly slight drop in November, from 4.4 percent to 4.3 percent. A year ago, the statewide jobless rate was 3.8 percent. The rate was 3.5 percent in November 2007.

"To be honest, it surprised us at the state level," said Kerry Koonce, spokeswoman for Iowa Workforce Development.

By comparison, the U.S. unemployment continued its upward trend, rising to 6.7 percent in November, up from 6.5 percent and 6.1 percent, respectively, in October and September.

The Waterloo/Cedar Falls metropolitan statistical area's total nonfarm employment decreased 700 from the previous month and stands at 91,500. Over-the-year total nonfarm employment fell by 400, the first year-over-year decrease since 2001. The metropolitan area's unemployment rate was 3.6 percent, down from 3.7 percent in October but up from the 3.3 percent reported a year earlier.

The metro area's number of employed workers actually fell from 92,300 to 91,400 in November, but the labor force also shrank, Koonce said.

"So, you didn't lose as many in the employed as in the labor force, and that may account for the drop in unemployment," she said.

The drop in jobless workers is basically a wash, statistically, Koonce noted.

"When the unemployed rate goes either way that one-tenth of a percent, isn't a lot," she said. "It's just the changing size of the labor force that's affecting the numbers more than anything. And I think that's going to be the case statewide, not just Waterloo."

Educational and health services, and manufacturing absorbed the bulk of the over-the-year decrease in the Cedar Valley, with drops of 300 and 200, respectively.

Trade, transportation and warehousing added 300 jobs from one year ago. Wholesale trade was responsible for the majority of the increase, although retail trade did manage a gain of 100.

That Iowa and the Cedar Valley continued to buck national unemployment trends comes as good news to state officials, but they also acknowledge that the numbers may be somewhat skewed, Koonce said.

She said the timing of the state's monthly survey may actually reflect a more positive employment picture than actually exists when the numbers come out.

"When the (U.S.) Bureau of Labor Statistics does what they call the household survey, it's always done the week that contains the 12th day of the month," she said. "So, for November, it's the week that started the 10th. As for our (statewide) data, as for unemployment claims, it wasn't until the following week that unemployment claims started to go up. I don't know if it has anything to do with Thanksgiving being late this year."

What that means is, the downward trend for Iowa's unemployment may be short-lived.

"We're expecting, unfortunately, the numbers to go back up in December," she said.

Other counties' numbers: Benton 3.9 percent (November), 3.7 percent (October), 3.3 percent (November 2007); Black Hawk 3.8, 3.9, 3.5; Bremer 2.8, 2.8, 2.7; Buchanan 3.5, 3.4, 3,5; Butler 4.1, 3.9, 3.4; Chickasaw 5, 5.2, 3.1; Delaware 3.9, 3.3, 3; Fayette 4.9, 4.6, 3.7; Floyd 6.5, 6.3, 3.9; Franklin 3.8, 3.7, 3; Grundy 3.2, 3.1, 3.1; Howard 4.5, 4.3, 3; Mitchell 4.4, 4.4, 3; Tama 5.2, 4.6, 4.2; Winnebago 7.8, 7.7, 3.2; Winneshiek 3.9, 3.6, 2.9.

Contact Jim Offner at (319) 291-1598 or jim.offner@wcfcourier.com.