TRAER -- Northeast Iowa farmers looking forward to fatter wallets from selling more fat cattle to customers in Central America will be waiting a long time.

In some cases, the wait will be up to 20 years before certain provisions of the recently approved Central American Free Trade Agreement take affect. And some ag experts believe only large corporations will benefit.

Supporters of CAFTA -- signed by President George W. Bush this month but awaiting ratifiction by other countries -- touted the agreement as a win for American agriculture. They believe more corn, soybeans, pork, beef and other commodities will be sold to 40-plus million customers in Central America once tariffs of up to 60 percent are eliminated.

Since Iowa is the top producer of corn, soybeans, pork and eggs in the United States, its farmers seemingly stand to benefit.

Not so, says Roger McEowen, an agricultural law and economics expert with Iowa State University Extension in Ames. Residents of Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua and the Dominican Republic buy few U.S. agricultural goods and don't have money to buy more, he said.

"Since what the countries buy is so trivial and with their buying power, the benefits will be slim to none," McEowen said. "NAFTA (North American Free Trade Agreement with Mexico and Canada, implemented in 1994) hasn't lifted up prices, so CAFTA certainly won't do it."

McEowen said the gross domestic product of the CAFTA countries is 94 percent less than Canada and Mexico. Government statistics show the per capita incomes range from nearly $2,000 a year to more than $8,500 a year in CAFTA nations.

While CAFTA won't hurt Iowa farmers, he said, selling goods to countries that can't pay a fair price won't help either.

"Exporting below the cost of production increases market share but does not help the farmer," McEowen said.

Several commodity groups and politicians don't see it that way. The Iowa Corn Growers Association, headed by Traer farmer David Calderwood, said CAFTA will open the way to more corn exports to Central America, while proving the United States is willing to work with less fortunate countries. That could bode well in future World Trade Organization talks.

Goods from CAFTA partners already enter the U.S. relatively duty free, Calderwood said, so the agreement is leveling the playing field. Once totally approved, CAFTA would eliminate duties on more than 80 percent of U.S. exports and phase out others within 20 years.

Supporters say more economic activity will be generated in all the participating countries, which should give poorer countries more money to buy U.S. agricultural goods. Eliminating tariffs should make trade more affordable.

"When sitting in Northeast Iowa, it's hard to grasp the international implications. But any exports help narrow the basis in Northeast Iowa," Calderwood said.

Basis is the difference between the futures markets and cash bids. More export demand forces local processors to bid up grain and livestock to satisfy their own needs.

While it is hard to put a number on how much local farmers will benefit, Calderwood believes they will.

"We need to look at the big picture. We need trade, and any little bit will help," Calderwood said.

A little bit is right, McEowen said. The American Farm Bureau Federation estimated U.S. ag exports to CAFTA countries would increase by $1.5 billion a year in 20 years. Ag exports to the region in 2003 totaled $1.6 billion.

The projected increase is one-half of 1 percent of current agricultural receipts nationwide, McEowen said.

For example, U.S. beef currently faces tariffs ranging from 15 percent to 30 percent in CAFTA countries. Under the agreement tariffs on prime and choice cuts would be eliminated immediately, while others would be phased out in 15 years.

From 2001 to 2003, the U.S. annually shipped about $10.6 million in beef to all six countries combined. McEowen said that figure could triple, and the country's 1 million cattle farmers would see about $30 extra a year.

"It's not going to have any affect. … Not even a tank of gas for the pickup," McEowen said.

The majority of Iowa's Congressional delegation voted for CAFTA. Sen. Tom Harkin, a Democrat, didn't.

Harkin said the negatives far outweigh positives in the agreement. The abuse of child labor will intensify in Central American countries. American workers will have to compete against countries with lower environmental and labor standards. American businesses will ship U.S. jobs overseas.

"This agreement would provide modest gains for U.S. agriculture at best," Harkin said before voting no. "And more importantly, family farms, rural communities and Iowa businesses will likely see stiffer challenges under CAFTA."

Two local ag businesses said the agreement won't have a big impact on area farmers, but is generally beneficial.

East Central Iowa Co-op, based in Hudson, said almost all of its grain is processed domestically. If meat exports increase, so does feed use, which trickles down to grain farmers.

Waterloo is home to a large pork processing plant owned by Tyson Fresh Meats. Spokesman Gary Mickelson said the company currently doesn't export pork products to Central America. However, the agreement could open the door for pork in the future and mechanically-deboned meat used in hot dogs. It also gives the company a chance to increase exports of meat like chicken leg quarters, certified Angus beef and beef variety meats (organ meats).

"We support free trade initiatives because they help ensure the opportunity to compete," Mickelson said. "The greatest benefit of CAFTA is the continued access to a growing market."

Contact Matthew Wilde at (319) 291-1579 or matt.wilde@wcfcourier.com.