WATERLOO - The year 1998 still seems like a bad dream for hog farmers.

This year is a nightmare.

Like dairy farmers, hog producers are hemorrhaging money and wondering how long they can stay in business. Economists and farmers estimate losses from $20 to $36 per hog - depending on the type of operation and feed supply. For example, farmers purchasing feeder pigs, paying for buildings and buying all their feed are losing the most.

During the past 21 months, the National Pork Producers Council said the industry lost nearly $4.5 billion.

"I thought '98 was bad; this is worse," said Tom Schneider of rural Waterloo.

Overproduction and limited packer capacity forced hog prices to plummet to Great Depression-era prices toward the end of 1998 - less than $10 per hundred weight for a brief time. Prices stayed low into 1999, and the red ink lasted about a year.

Government records indicate 3,000 Iowa hog farmers, 17 percent, quit during that time. At the end of the decade, 14,500 remained. It was the largest year-to-year drop in more than four decades.

Industry officials fear this go-around will be worse. Farmers are battling low prices, high input costs, public perception about H1N1 - swine flu - and a worldwide recession at the same time. For the first time in 17 years, pork exports - on which farmers rely to keep supply and demand in balance - shrank.

"I hate to use the cliche that it's the perfect storm, but it is," said Jim Wiesemeyer, senior vice president of farm and trade policy with Informa Economics in Ashburn, Va.

The Iowa native spoke at a forum Wednesday at the Heartland Acres Agribition Center in Independence offering information to help producers persevere during tough economic times. The event was hosted by the Coalition to Support Iowa's Farmers.

Wiesemeyer believes a 10 percent reduction of the breeding herd to drastically reduce supply is the best way to return to profitability. The June Hog and Pig Report indicates slow movement toward that number.

The were 66.08 million head of hogs in the U.S., down 2 percent from a year ago. The breeding herd was pegged at 5.97 million head, down 2.7 percent.

"Hog producers are more nervous than I've ever seen. They're saying, 'I don't mind dairy farmers getting a bailout, but now I need one, too,'" Wiesemeyer said.

On Aug. 17, the NPPC asked for $250 million in financial assistance from the U.S. Department of Agriculture to help hog farmers. Buying surplus pork for food programs is part of the request.

Not all Iowans are in favor of taxpayer help for hog producers. As of 2007, there are 8,300 left in the state.

"We are fed up with bailing out this industry that pollutes our air and water and drives family farmers out of business," said ICCI member and farmer Vern Tigges in a statement.

Sen. Charles Grassley of New Hartford says he disagrees.

"I urged the department to buy more pork," Grassley said. "What better time to stock (up) than when prices are low instead of when they're high?"

If profitability doesn't return within a year, which Wiesemeyer says is questionable, Schneider said he may have to get out of the business so he doesn't lose everything for which he has worked since the 1970s.

Schneider is doing his part to help the industry by reducing sow numbers by 10 percent, to 750 head. He said quitting hog farming is a last resort since his son Peter, an Iowa State University veterinary student, wants to come home to farm and the local economy revolves around agriculture.

"I don't want to get into the position the banker says 'that's it.' But there's a point when enough is enough," Schneider said.

Chris Hesse, president of the Black Hawk County Pork Producers, says area hog farmers are hanging on for now. Most feed their own corn, which is cushioning losses somewhat.

"The numbers are depressing," said Hesse, a contract feeder. "It comes down to how long you can hold out."