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Now it’s time to figure out what election results mean
By FRED ABRAHAM, guest columnist
The dust has settled, at least a little bit, from the presidential election, and it is interesting to try to figure out what the results mean and don’t mean. Unquestionably, electing an African-American as president is historic and means something. Such a thing would have been unthinkable a generation ago, and it certainly shows we have made enormous racial strides as a nation.
However, we should not make too much of this particular aspect of the result. Barack Obama is not one of the African-Americans who are the target of negative feelings by those with some racist tendencies. Raised pretty much in Hawaii by Caucasian grandparents and ultimately elected president of the Harvard Law Review, his educational path would be desired by parents of any race. While his election is of course a landmark achievement for an African-American, I see it more as a validation of an extremely bright, well-educated and insightful person who happens to be African-American than a victory for a race. Another, less-talented African-American might not have fared as well.
I also don’t think the election represents a major shift in the thinking of the country. Recall that in 2000, George Bush received 48 percent of the popular vote while this year McCain received 46 percent. A slippage of 2 percent in eight years is not exactly seismic. In fact, the difference this time around was the poor performance of third-party candidates, apparently receiving only about 1 percent of the vote as compared to 4 percent in 2000. Had the third parties done as badly in 2000, Gore would have likely won. To say we are seeing a new era in this country is premature at best.
Further, had the McCain camp not seriously miscalculated the loyalty of its conservative base and picked Sarah Palin as a running mate, the election would have been closer. As much as the far right dislike McCain, they dislike Obama and the Democrats much, much more. They would have voted for any Republican and against any Democrat no matter what.
Wasting the VP pick on Palin was unnecessary and cost far more than it gained. For example, Texas Sen. Kay Hutchison, while not adored as much by the right as Palin, would not have cost any conservative votes and would have attracted far more from the middle.
What conclusions can we draw from the election? More than anything, it was a response to the stubborn, wrong-headed and deceptive policies of George Bush and the members of his administration. His rock-bottom approval ratings virtually ensured any Republican who could be linked to him would have a hard time, and the Democrats were successful in making the connection. One of the most effective messages the Obama camp sent was that McCain supported Bush 90 percent of the time. What a weight this was for McCain. Frankly, the biggest surprise of this election was as dissatisfied as the country was with Bush, McCain still got 46 percent of the vote. Perhaps the biggest lesson of the election is we can have an extremely unpopular departing president and his party can still get close to half the vote. There is a clear message here: Our country is still split and two groups are staring at each other across a wide ideological chasm that can’t even be bridged by a common disgust with a sitting president.
This should be a sobering thought for Obama. Don’t look at the landslide in the electoral college (which should be abolished). Look instead at an election where 47 percent of the voters didn’t want you as president. Bush did not heed this message in 2000 when more people voted against him than for him. He behaved as if he won by 90 percent. Obama is much smarter than Bush and should realize he did not get a mandate. He must work to implement the ideas that got him elected while listening to the views of the opposition. If he fails to do this, in eight or perhaps even in four years, he will find himself at the bottom of a pendulum swinging back to the other side.
However, we should not make too much of this particular aspect of the result. Barack Obama is not one of the African-Americans who are the target of negative feelings by those with some racist tendencies. Raised pretty much in Hawaii by Caucasian grandparents and ultimately elected president of the Harvard Law Review, his educational path would be desired by parents of any race. While his election is of course a landmark achievement for an African-American, I see it more as a validation of an extremely bright, well-educated and insightful person who happens to be African-American than a victory for a race. Another, less-talented African-American might not have fared as well.
I also don’t think the election represents a major shift in the thinking of the country. Recall that in 2000, George Bush received 48 percent of the popular vote while this year McCain received 46 percent. A slippage of 2 percent in eight years is not exactly seismic. In fact, the difference this time around was the poor performance of third-party candidates, apparently receiving only about 1 percent of the vote as compared to 4 percent in 2000. Had the third parties done as badly in 2000, Gore would have likely won. To say we are seeing a new era in this country is premature at best.
Further, had the McCain camp not seriously miscalculated the loyalty of its conservative base and picked Sarah Palin as a running mate, the election would have been closer. As much as the far right dislike McCain, they dislike Obama and the Democrats much, much more. They would have voted for any Republican and against any Democrat no matter what.
Wasting the VP pick on Palin was unnecessary and cost far more than it gained. For example, Texas Sen. Kay Hutchison, while not adored as much by the right as Palin, would not have cost any conservative votes and would have attracted far more from the middle.
What conclusions can we draw from the election? More than anything, it was a response to the stubborn, wrong-headed and deceptive policies of George Bush and the members of his administration. His rock-bottom approval ratings virtually ensured any Republican who could be linked to him would have a hard time, and the Democrats were successful in making the connection. One of the most effective messages the Obama camp sent was that McCain supported Bush 90 percent of the time. What a weight this was for McCain. Frankly, the biggest surprise of this election was as dissatisfied as the country was with Bush, McCain still got 46 percent of the vote. Perhaps the biggest lesson of the election is we can have an extremely unpopular departing president and his party can still get close to half the vote. There is a clear message here: Our country is still split and two groups are staring at each other across a wide ideological chasm that can’t even be bridged by a common disgust with a sitting president.
This should be a sobering thought for Obama. Don’t look at the landslide in the electoral college (which should be abolished). Look instead at an election where 47 percent of the voters didn’t want you as president. Bush did not heed this message in 2000 when more people voted against him than for him. He behaved as if he won by 90 percent. Obama is much smarter than Bush and should realize he did not get a mandate. He must work to implement the ideas that got him elected while listening to the views of the opposition. If he fails to do this, in eight or perhaps even in four years, he will find himself at the bottom of a pendulum swinging back to the other side.
More Stories from Columnists » Guest Column
hetfield wrote on Nov 16, 2008 9:43 PM:
" lots of highs and lows in this weeks liberal talk back.
For the positives. Abraham does make some good points about the pre-elect and not getting too warm and fuzzy about his win. this was not a landslide, and if you take into account the liberal media and their golden one campaign, it is surprising he only won by a few pts.
on the lows. palin is again attacked by a liberal as a poor choice. poppeycock! palin resurrected the party and will be a major force in the years to come. had she ran for pres and was given the opportunity to unite the party this could have been a different election.
instead she was attacked straight out of the chicago thug handbook. send thugs to hack her online accounts. send thugs to alaska to dumpster dive. send thugs to set her up with bogus questions.
as a thorough chicago activist b hussein accomplished this beautifully with a huge assist to liberal rag writers.
Next we have abraham spouting off about changing the constitution again with abolishing the electoral college. Ridiculous and as arrogant as the chosen one himselft. if you think new yawk and greenie la-la land should be charged with electing presidents every election you are coocoo. Our forefathers were alot smarter than this president elects thugs and hangers on, and certainly alot smarter than a simpleton economy professor from cedar falls.
nice effort fred, but we aint buying! "
For the positives. Abraham does make some good points about the pre-elect and not getting too warm and fuzzy about his win. this was not a landslide, and if you take into account the liberal media and their golden one campaign, it is surprising he only won by a few pts.
on the lows. palin is again attacked by a liberal as a poor choice. poppeycock! palin resurrected the party and will be a major force in the years to come. had she ran for pres and was given the opportunity to unite the party this could have been a different election.
instead she was attacked straight out of the chicago thug handbook. send thugs to hack her online accounts. send thugs to alaska to dumpster dive. send thugs to set her up with bogus questions.
as a thorough chicago activist b hussein accomplished this beautifully with a huge assist to liberal rag writers.
Next we have abraham spouting off about changing the constitution again with abolishing the electoral college. Ridiculous and as arrogant as the chosen one himselft. if you think new yawk and greenie la-la land should be charged with electing presidents every election you are coocoo. Our forefathers were alot smarter than this president elects thugs and hangers on, and certainly alot smarter than a simpleton economy professor from cedar falls.
nice effort fred, but we aint buying! "
hetfield wrote on Nov 16, 2008 9:52 PM:
" one other point to fred. the rock bottom approval ratings were nothign compared to the mud-dwelling approval ratings of pelosi's liberal do-nothing congress.
i wonder why the press didnt push those approval ratings? oh that is right, they prostituted their headlines to b hussein and his mafia style campaign.
Chester. bush goes down as the president who saved lives after 9-11. he promised all citizens he would not allow further terrorist attacks on our soil, and he delivered. brave men and women have given their lives for this promise and they continue to put themselves in harms way.
now, bush was unable to save millions of unborn babies lives, because of liberals in this country. try as he may, the abortionists in this country have some answering ahead of them. "
i wonder why the press didnt push those approval ratings? oh that is right, they prostituted their headlines to b hussein and his mafia style campaign.
Chester. bush goes down as the president who saved lives after 9-11. he promised all citizens he would not allow further terrorist attacks on our soil, and he delivered. brave men and women have given their lives for this promise and they continue to put themselves in harms way.
now, bush was unable to save millions of unborn babies lives, because of liberals in this country. try as he may, the abortionists in this country have some answering ahead of them. "
skelloch wrote on Nov 22, 2008 1:20 PM:
" I can't wait for the checks to start arriving to pay for my gas and mortgage. At least that's what I saw one lady cheering about on Nov 5th with Obama won the election. Maybe I can afford another cell phone, and HDTV. "
cire wrote on Nov 23, 2008 12:54 AM:
" please give me my handout, President Obama..
pay my mortgage, my car payment, and my student loans...after all, these are tough times and we all need a bail out.
Thanks in advance,
Your Loving Worshipe...err, "Supporters" "
pay my mortgage, my car payment, and my student loans...after all, these are tough times and we all need a bail out.
Thanks in advance,
Your Loving Worshipe...err, "Supporters" "
waverly wrote on Nov 23, 2008 6:16 AM:
" Hetfield unfortunately Bush had nothing to do with terrorists not attacking this country, its sad to say that if terrorists wanted to attack any country they could, you can't stop them, you can only deter them. Sort of like drugs in this country, you will never stop them.
So I don't think Bush will go down as the president who saved lives after 9-11. He will go down as a President who put kids in harms way over false information on weapons of Mass destruction.
So if I were you I would take down them pictures of Bush that you have on your walls and put them up on your bathroom walls so you can look at him while your thinking what to write when you get on here. "
So I don't think Bush will go down as the president who saved lives after 9-11. He will go down as a President who put kids in harms way over false information on weapons of Mass destruction.
So if I were you I would take down them pictures of Bush that you have on your walls and put them up on your bathroom walls so you can look at him while your thinking what to write when you get on here. "
think wrote on Nov 23, 2008 11:15 AM:
" Hey Plax we have no DRAFT! Wake up and understand some of us enlisted knowing full well what that meant. Glad the US don't need to be saved. People like you would run for the hills and leave the kids behind. Some people just have no spine and that's OK. Just don't knock those that want to fight.BTW Carter got people killed as well trying a stupid plan to save his second term. Democrats start big wars don't they. In the summer of 67 we lost 4,000 "Kids" who were DRAFTED in LBJ's Vietnam.You tell me Democrats don't put people in harms ways. Yes we attacked Vietnam.THEY DID NOTHING TO US. "
waverly wrote on Nov 23, 2008 11:57 AM:
" Plaxi, not delusional, reality. Something all you Bush supporters need to come to terms with.
McCain and Palin kept saying were winning this war...We aren't winning Jack...There is no winning in war....When you lose one life, in this case thousands of lives, there is no winning.
Maybe we need to give our boys/girls over in Afghanistan some additional support...were just sitting duck in Iraq.....troop out driving around wondering when the next road side device is going to hit them.
I think its time Iraq stands on its own and bring our troops home....cause unfortunately there is no end to war, its always brewing somewhere. "
McCain and Palin kept saying were winning this war...We aren't winning Jack...There is no winning in war....When you lose one life, in this case thousands of lives, there is no winning.
Maybe we need to give our boys/girls over in Afghanistan some additional support...were just sitting duck in Iraq.....troop out driving around wondering when the next road side device is going to hit them.
I think its time Iraq stands on its own and bring our troops home....cause unfortunately there is no end to war, its always brewing somewhere. "
avee wrote on Nov 23, 2008 12:55 PM:
" Obama won because he convinced a lot of people that they would get stuff including money from the government and they wouldn’t have to pay for it. He convinced them that their enemy was not the terrorists but the 5 % of “Rich White People”. He convinced many that he was a black / african American and for some that was all they needed to know. Being young, tall and reasonably good looking didn’t hurt him either. I’m surprised he only got 52.7% of the vote. BTW in my humble opinion had it not been for Palin, Obama probably would have done a lot better. I know several Republicans that were not going to vote at all until Palin got on the ticket. "
Independent wrote on Nov 23, 2008 1:48 PM:
" waverly, why is it unfortutant that Bush had noting to do with terrorist attacking our country? "
plaxibo wrote on Nov 23, 2008 4:49 PM:
" Think, I did my time in the service. Terrorist attacks were comeon back in 86 also. It didn't start 911. Its been happening for a very long time.
Btw I am no coward. I am more then willing to fight for my own freedom. "
Btw I am no coward. I am more then willing to fight for my own freedom. "
think wrote on Nov 23, 2008 9:06 PM:
" Sorry Plax I am not buying. If Jimmy Carter had a spine and shut down Iran and not made us a laughing stock this would have never happened. Democrats go nuts when you point at the big wars they did indeed get us into to. 4,000 dead in the summer of 67 alone due to LBJ. Now Carter is back in office and took the Clintons with him. "
cf1981 wrote on Nov 23, 2008 11:29 PM:
" the american people have spoken. they have rejected dubya's worthless political ideas, his disastrous economic policies, his delusional war in iraq and the GOP's record of hatred and bigotry. the american people have finally voted for change, for a new way forward, for the re-building of a country that was once great and can be great again for our children.
to all the hate-mongering right-wing bozos out there who can't accept the obvious: why don't you come over to our side, join the winning team, and make a positive difference in the world, rather than hunkering down and spewing your venom and shameful insults? "
to all the hate-mongering right-wing bozos out there who can't accept the obvious: why don't you come over to our side, join the winning team, and make a positive difference in the world, rather than hunkering down and spewing your venom and shameful insults? "
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chester11 wrote on Nov 16, 2008 1:37 PM:
You nailed it. Obama cannot act like he won 90% of the votes and I don't think he will. For all intents and purposes, that is EXACTLY where George W. Bush and his cronies went wrong. "