IOWA INSIDER

A new poll by Lee Enterprises newspapers shows a tight three-way race among Democrats in the Iowa caucus race as John Edwards gained support to tie Barack Obama for the lead.

The poll of 500 likely Iowa caucus-goers shows Edwards and Obama both with support from 29 percent and Hillary Clinton just one point behind them.

“I don’t know how much closer you can get,” said pollster Del Ali of Research 2000. The Maryland-based firm conducted the survey on Dec. 26 and 27.

Edwards, a former U.S. senator from North Carolina, gained 5 percent since a Lee Enterprises poll two weeks ago.

Clinton, U.S. senator from New York, saw her support rise 4 percent in that time, while Obama, a U.S. senator from Illinois, dropped 4 percent. He led the field by a nine-point margin in the previous poll.

The second tier of candidates still lags far behind the top three.

New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson registered 7 percent support, followed by U.S. Sen. Joe Biden of Delaware with 3 percent.

U.S. Sen. Chris Dodd of Connecticut and U.S. Rep. Dennis Kucinich of Ohio each had 1 percent.

The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.5 percent.

When asked whether they prefer a candidate who has experience, will take on special interests or can heal partisan difference, the biggest share, or 37 percent, said they are looking for a candidate that will take on special interests.

Both Edwards and Obama have made the issue a centerpiece of their campaigns.

A total of 31 percent said having a candidate with experience was their top consideration, while 29 percent said they are looking for someone who can heal partisan differences.

Clinton has stressed her experience as first lady and a U.S. senator in her appeal to Iowa voters, while Obama has focused on his ability to find common ground with Republicans and independents.

When asked to name their second-choice candidate, 29 percent of those polled named Edwards, 27 percent named Obama and 26 percent said Clinton is their second choice.

From Lee Enterprises Des Moines bureau reporter Whitney Woodward —

Presidential hopeful Hillary Clinton will make an eleventh-hour plea to caucus-goers Jan. 2 in a two-minute advertisement slated to run on TV stations statewide, her campaign announced Thursday.

The Democrat will make her closing arguments to Iowans during their 6 p.m. newscasts the day before they head to their precinct caucuses, Clinton campaign spokesman Mark Daley said.

“It’ll be sort of a last-minute message to the Iowa caucus-goers,” Daley said.

Daley said he didn’t know which channels the spot will run on, nor how much the ad buy will cost the campaign. The message has yet to be filmed, Daley said.

An early forecast is predicting what would be mild Iowa weather for next Thursday, when the Iowa caucuses will be held.

Weather.com is forecasting sunny skies on Jan. 3, with a high of 32 and a low of 22.

If the predictions hold, it will be a welcome relief for campaigns thwarted in recent weeks by winter storms across the state that have forced them to cancel events.

So which campaign benefits the most from a mild evening? I’m sure some strategist has already figured that out.

My prediction: It helps Hillary Clinton and John McCain, who appeal to older voters who might be more likely to stay home on caucus night if the weather is nasty.

Colleague Dan Gearino’s prediction: Mitt Romney in the GOP race and both Clinton and Barack Obama.